World War III?

The news is saturated with news about an impending World War III. I hope and pray to God it will not happen. War isn't something people wish would happen.

I've been reading up on the events that lead up to the killing of General Soleimani to better understand why Donald Trump decided to strike. I'm trying to educate myself on the subject to find out what went wrong, when it all went wrong, and why. For that, let's look back at the series of events in reverse order (starting with the killing of General Soleimani) because I was shocked by how much eve surface level research one has to unpack.

General Soleimani was killed by an air raid earlier this month. This seemed to come out of nowhere especially to someone like me who isn't as aware of world events in that part of the world as I could be. He was an important military leader in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Trump claims to have reliable reports that say Soleimani was planning an attack on American diplomats and his strike was a preemptive one. I'm no fan of preemptive strikes if they have no prior basis for it.

Searching further, it should be noted that the IRGC has been actively involved in numerous strikes on oil tankers in the Gulf. Just last month, in December of 2019, Iran attacked US bases and a US embassy in Iraq. I believe this was the final straw that gave Trump the push he needed to push forward with his preemptive strike. I then wanted to see why Iran would attack.

It should be noted that all of Iran's attacks seemed to be focused on oil tankers. They didn't limit themselves to US controlled oil tankers or companies. Other countries involved are Saudi Arabia and the UK. So then the question becomes, why would Iran do such a thing.

It's said that an animal is most dangerous when it's cornered. It seems to me that Iran had been backed up into a corner as a result of sanctions put up against it by the US. I had only been recently educated about sanctions and how they can be imposed. Among the sanctions put by the US on Iran, are bans on all products from Iran. When your economy is heavily dependent on exporting your products, sanctions can indeed cripple your economy.

I still cannot, however, make the connection between the sanctions put against Iran and their attacks on oil tankers and companies but all major news outlets point to US sanctions for the primary driver of the Iranian attacks. I will insert my own opinion here and say that we shouldn't treat the Iranian government (IRGC) like a child that was acting up simply because they didn't get what they wanted.

Now, we're at the sanctions which can be complicated. in 2018, the US pulled from the Iran Nuclear Deal which would basically lift the sanctions the US previously imposed on Iran while Iran can continue (but limit) its nuclear program. Some news outlets say Iran had to give up most of its centrifuges just so the US would lift economic sanctions on it. The Iran Nuclear Deal was signed in 2015 and that allowed Iran to basically participate in trade with other countries.

So why did the US pull its support from the Nuclear Deal? What happened between 2015 and 2018 that prompted the US to change its mind on the matter? The short answer? 2016. More specifically, the 2016 US Presidential elections happened and Trump won.

US conservatives and Trump in particular don't trust the Iran Nuclear Deal. While Iran promised not to expand its nuclear program beyond use for nuclear power, I think Trump was uneasy with the idea that Iran may not have been keeping their end of the deal. His reason?

While it hasn't been stated outright by Trump himself, it's easy to see that when the Iran Nuclear Deal was signed, it was signed by the Iranian government which is run by the IRGC (remember, Soleimani?). The IRGC is listed as a terrorist organization by the governments of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and of course, the United States.

Technically, the United States entered into a deal with an organization that itself views as a terrorist organization. Imagine striking a deal with the guy that three people, including yourself consider a bully. Why they did this? I don't quite understand. The goals were noble as it did allow Iranian citizens to participate in the global economy. But I personally can't see myself ever entering the negotiation table with a terrorist group.

So that's where I'm at now. These days, it's easy to spot Republicans praising Trumps actions and Democrats bashing him for it. Would life truly be better without General Soleimani? We'll never know. Unfortunately, in real life, you can only really find out one outcome or any decision.

Both sides, however, agree that Soleimani was an evil man. This isn't disputed. News outlets that try to paint him as a hero in his country should just stop already. What is up for debate it whether the air strike on his life was a good idea tactically. And that, quite frankly is a question well above my pay grade.